AI-Based Risk Modeling of Infectious Disease Spread and Its Implications for Public Health Security in Vulnerable Populations
Article Information
Publication Timeline
- Received29 October 2024
Abstract
One of the challenges vulnerable populations in low-resource and high-density settings face includes the high probability of encountering an infectious disease outbreak because of the inadequate healthcare, overcrowding, and limited access to preventive services in such regions. Most traditional analytics in epidemiology do not address the challenges of modeling disease in these regions and thus fail to analyze the gaps in intervention and public health preparedness. This study focuses on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) based risk modeling systems to address infectious disease spread and public health security among these vulnerable populations. From epidemiology to public health, the response is built on machine learning (supervised, unsupervised, deep learning) algorithms on diverse datasets. These datasets include epidemiological incidences, population density, human mobility, health system, and socioeconomic and environmental factors. The identification of the disease’s transmission location, prediction of the disease, and vulnerability of the health system to the disease model the outbreaks, serving the gaps in public health preparedness. These benefits of AI-based risk modeling assist the decision-making in the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital capacity, the availability of rapid diagnostic tests, and the focus of vaccination.
References
- Abir SAA, Islam SN, Anwar A, Mahmood AN, Oo AMT. Building resilience against COVID-19 pandemic using artificial intelligence, machine learning, and IoT: a survey of recent progress. IoT. 2020;1(2 ):506-28. doi:10.3390/iot1020028. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Agbehadji IE, Awuzie BO, Ngowi AB, Millham RC. Review of big data analytics, artificial intelligence and nature-inspired computing models towards accurate detection of COVID-19 pandemic cases and contact tracing. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020;17(15):5330. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Aik J, Ong J, Ng LC. The effects of climate variability and seasonal influence on diarrhoeal disease in the tropical city-state of Singapore–A time-series analysis. Int J Hyg Environ Health. 2020;227:113517. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Anderson EL, Omenn GS, Turnham P. Improving health risk assessment as a basis for public health decisions in the 21st century. Risk Anal. 2020;40(S1):2272-99. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Miller IF, Rajeev M, Rasambainarivo F, Rice BL, et al. Infectious disease in an era of global change. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2022;20(4):193-205. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Bardosh KL, de Vries DH, Abramowitz S, Thorlie A, Cremers L, Kinsman J, et al. Integrating the social sciences in epidemic preparedness and response: a strategic framework to strengthen capacities and improve global health security. Global Health. 2020;16(1):120. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Bates DW, Auerbach A, Schulam P, Wright A, Saria S. Reporting and implementing interventions involving machine learning and artificial intelligence. Ann Intern Med. 2020;172(11 Suppl):S137-44. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Bedi JS, Vijay D, Dhaka P, Gill JPS, Barbuddhe SB. Emergency preparedness for public health threats, surveillance, modelling & forecasting. Indian J Med Res. 2021;153(3):287-98. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Blanco C, Wiley TR, Lloyd JJ, Lopez MF, Volkow ND. America’s opioid crisis: the need for an integrated public health approach. Transl Psychiatry. 2020;10(1):167. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Chakilam C. AI-Driven Insights In Disease Prediction And Prevention: The Role Of Cloud Computing In Scalable Healthcare Delivery. Migr Lett. 2022;19(S8):2105-23. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Chakraborty J, Majumder S, Menzies T. Bias in machine learning software: Why? how? what to do? In: Proceedings of the 29th ACM Joint Meeting on European Software Engineering Conference and Symposium on the Foundations of Software Engineering; 2021 Aug. p. 429-40. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Chen AP, Hansoti B, Hsu EB. The COVID-19 pandemic response and its impact on Post-Pandemic health emergency and disaster risk management in the united States. Sustainability. 2022;14(23):16301. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Chianumba EC, Ikhalea N, Mustapha AY, Forkuo AY. Developing a framework for using AI in personalized medicine to optimize treatment plans. J Front Multidiscip Res. 2022;3(1):57-71. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Chisholm RH, Crammond B, Wu Y, Bowen AC, Campbell PT, Tong SY, et al. A model of population dynamics with complex household structure and mobility: implications for transmission and control of communicable diseases. PeerJ. 2020;8:e10203. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Decouttere C, De Boeck K, Vandaele N. Advancing sustainable development goals through immunization: a literature review. Global Health. 2021;17(1):95. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Ejedegba EO. Equitable healthcare in the age of AI: predictive analytics for closing gaps in access and outcomes. Int J Res Publ Rev. 2022;3(12):2882-94. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Faes M, Moens D. Recent trends in the modeling and quantification of non-probabilistic uncertainty. Arch Comput Methods Eng. 2020;27(3):1-39. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Forkuo AY, Chianumba EC, Mustapha AY, Osamika D, Komi LS. Advances in digital diagnostics and virtual care platforms for primary healthcare delivery in West Africa. Methodology. 2022;96(71):48. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Hamilton AJ, Strauss AT, Martinez DA, Hinson JS, Levin S, Lin G, et al. Machine learning and artificial intelligence: applications in healthcare epidemiology. Antimicrob Steward Healthc Epidemiol. 2021;1(1):e28. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Hungbo AQ, Adeyemi CHR, Ajayi OO. Early warning escalation system for care aides in long-term patient monitoring. IRE Journals. 2020;3(7):321-45. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Ibrahim NK. Epidemiologic surveillance for controlling Covid-19 pandemic: types, challenges and implications. J Infect Public Health. 2020;13(11):1630-8. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Ikhalea N, Chianumba EC, Mustapha AY, Forkuo AY. A Conceptual Framework for AI-Driven Early Detection of Chronic Diseases Using Predictive Analytics. 2022. [Note: Journal/source details incomplete in original; formatted as available.] [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Imai N, Gaythorpe KA, Abbott S, Bhatia S, van Elsland S, Prem K, et al. Adoption and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19. Wellcome Open Res. 2020;5:59. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Kakkar AK, Shafiq N, Singh G, Ray P, Gautam V, Agarwal R, et al. Antimicrobial stewardship programs in resource constrained environments: understanding and addressing the need of the systems. Front Public Health. 2020;8:140. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Karadayi Y, Aydin MN, Öǧrencí AS. Unsupervised anomaly detection in multivariate spatio-temporal data using deep learning: early detection of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. IEEE Access. 2020;8:164155-77. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Kohnert D. On the socio-economic impact of pandemics in Africa-Lessons learned from COVID-19, Trypanosomiasis, HIV, Yellow Fever and Cholera. 2021. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Kokala A. The Intersection of Explainable Ai and Ethical Decision-Making: Advancing Trustworthy Cloud-Based Data Science Models. Int J All Res Educ Sci Methods. 2022;10(12):2166-83. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Leitmeyer KC, Espinosa L, Broberg EK, Struelens MJ, Allerberger F, Dupont Y, et al. Automated digital reporting of clinical laboratory information to national public health surveillance systems, results of a EU/EEA survey, 2018. Euro Surveill. 2020;25(39):1900591. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Lentzos F, Goodman MS, Wilson JM. Health security intelligence: engaging across disciplines and sectors. Intell Natl Secur. 2020;35(4):465-76. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Liu Q, Liu M, Zhou H, Yan F, Ma Y, Shen W. Intelligent manufacturing system with human-cyber-physical fusion and collaboration for process fine control. J Manuf Syst. International Journal of Medical and All Body Health Research www.allmedicaljournal.com 2022;64:149-69. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Luca M, Barlacchi G, Lepri B, Pappalardo L. A survey on deep learning for human mobility. ACM Comput Surv. 2021;55(1):1-44. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Majeed A, Hwang SO. Data-driven analytics leveraging artificial intelligence in the era of COVID-19: an insightful review of recent developments. Symmetry. 2021;14(1):16. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Martins KA, Ayebare RR, Bhadelia N, Kiweewa F, Waitt P, Mimbe D, et al. Pre-positioned outbreak research: the joint medical emerging diseases intervention clinical capability experience in Uganda. Health Secur. 2020;18(2):114-24. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- McDermid JA, Jia Y, Porter Z, Habli I. Artificial intelligence explainability: the technical and ethical dimensions. Philos Trans R Soc A. 2021;379(2207):20200363. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Mehrabi N, Morstatter F, Saxena N, Lerman K, Galstyan A. A survey on bias and fairness in machine learning. ACM Comput Surv. 2021;54(6):1-35. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Mehrdad S, Wang Y, Atashzar SF. Perspective: wearable internet of medical things for remote tracking of symptoms, prediction of health anomalies, implementation of preventative measures, and control of virus spread during the era of COVID-19. Front Robot AI. 2021;8:610653. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Moodley K, Rennie S, Behets F, Obasa AE, Yemesi R, Ravez L, et al. Allocation of scarce resources in Africa during COVID‐19: Utility and justice for the bottom of the pyramid? Dev World Bioeth. 2021;21(1):36-43. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Murad A, Kraemer FA, Bach K, Taylor G. Probabilistic deep learning to quantify uncertainty in air quality forecasting. Sensors (Basel). 2021;21(23):8009. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Nadimpalli ML, Marks SJ, Montealegre MC, Gilman RH, Pajuelo MJ, Saito M, et al. Urban informal settlements as hotspots of antimicrobial resistance and the need to curb environmental transmission. Nat Microbiol. 2020;5(6):787-95. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Nguyen DC, Ding M, Pathirana PN, Seneviratne A. Blockchain and AI-based solutions to combat coronavirus (COVID-19)-like epidemics: A survey. IEEE Access. 2021;9:95730-53. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Nnaji ND, Onyeaka H, Reuben RC, Uwishema O, Olovo CV, Anyogu A. The deuce-ace of Lassa Fever, Ebola virus disease and COVID-19 simultaneous infections and epidemics in West Africa: clinical and public health implications. Trop Med Health. 2021;49(1):102. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Ojeikere K, Akomolafe OO, Akintimehin OO. A Model for Integrating Vulnerable Populations into Public Health Systems. Int J Multidiscip Res Growth Eval. 2021;20(21.2):2-393. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Oparah OS, Ezeh FE, Olatunji GI, Ajayi OO. Big Data-Enabled Predictive Models for Anticipating Infectious Disease Outbreaks at Population and Regional Levels. 2022. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- O'Sullivan TM, Ramsay JD. Public health security. In: Theoretical Foundations of Homeland Security. London: Routledge; 2020. p. 208-30. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Palomares I, Martínez-Cámara E, Montes R, García-Moral P, Chiachio M, Chiachio J, et al. A panoramic view and swot analysis of artificial intelligence for achieving the sustainable development goals by 2030: progress and prospects. Appl Intell. 2021;51(9):6497-527. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Paramasivan A. Big Data to Better Care: The Role of AI in Predictive Modelling for Healthcare Management. Int J Innov Res Creat Technol. 2020;6(3):1-9. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Pratt B, Wild V, Barasa E, Kamuya D, Gilson L, Hendl T, et al. Justice: a key consideration in health policy and systems research ethics. BMJ Glob Health. 2020;5(4):e001942. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Prosperi M, Guo Y, Sperrin M, Koopman JS, Min JS, He X, et al. Causal inference and counterfactual prediction in machine learning for actionable healthcare. Nat Mach Intell. 2020;2(7):369-75. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Rahman MM, Paul KC, Hossain MA, Ali GMN, Rahman MS, Thill JC. Machine learning on the COVID-19 pandemic, human mobility and air quality: A review. IEEE Access. 2021;9:72420-50. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Reddy MS, Sarisa M, Konkimalla S, Bauskar SR, Gollangi HK, Galla EP, et al. Predicting tomorrow’s Ailments: How AI/ML Is Transforming Disease Forecasting. ESP J Eng Technol Adv. 2021;1(2):188-200. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Reed‐Berendt R, Dove ES, Pareek M; UK‐REACH Study Collaborative Group. The ethical implications of big data research in public health:“big data ethics by design” in the uk‐reach study. Ethics Hum Res. 2022;44(1):2-17. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Regmi K, Lwin CM. Factors associated with the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions for reducing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a systematic review. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021;18(8):4274. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Sartorius B, Lawson AB, Pullan RL. Modelling and predicting the spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19, associated deaths and impact of key risk factors in England. Sci Rep. 2021;11(1):5378. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Semenza JC, Rocklöv J, Ebi KL. Climate change and cascading risks from infectious disease. Infect Dis Ther. 2022;11(4):1371-90. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Shi L, Stevens GD. Vulnerable populations in the United States. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons; 2021. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Siegel RM, Mallow PJ. The impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations and implications for children and health care policy. Clin Pediatr (Phila). 2021;60(2):93-8. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Tang L, Zhou Y, Wang L, Purkayastha S, Zhang L, He J, et al. A review of multi‐compartment infectious disease models. Int Stat Rev. 2020;88(2):462-513. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Yigitcanlar T, Mehmood R, Corchado JM. Green artificial intelligence: Towards an efficient, sustainable and equitable technology for smart cities and futures. Sustainability. 2021;13(16):8952. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Zahid H, Shankar P. AI in Public Health: Integrating Disease Modelling and Healthcare AI for Improved Connectivity and Risk Management. 2020. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
- Zeng D, Cao Z, Neill DB. Artificial intelligence–enabled public health surveillance from local detection to global epidemic monitoring and control. In: Artificial intelligence in medicine. London: Academic Press; 2021. p. 437-53. Copyright and License © The Author(s). Authors retain the copyright of their published articles. This is an open access journal, and articles are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial-Share A like 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) License, which allows others to remix, tweak, and build upon the work non-commercially, as long as appropriate credit is given and the new creations are licensed under the identical terms. [Google Scholar][Crossref]
How to Cite
Olalere, S. O., & Uzu-Okoh, J. E. (2024). AI-Based Risk Modeling of Infectious Disease Spread and Its Implications for Public Health Security in Vulnerable Populations. International Journal of Medical and All Body Health Research, 5(4), 241-250. https://doi.org/10.54660/IJMBHR.2024.5.4.241-250
Olalere, Sarafa Olumide, and Joy Ejenavi Uzu-Okoh. "AI-Based Risk Modeling of Infectious Disease Spread and Its Implications for Public Health Security in Vulnerable Populations." International Journal of Medical and All Body Health Research, vol. 5, no. 4, 2024, pp. 241-250. https://doi.org/10.54660/IJMBHR.2024.5.4.241-250.
Olalere, S. O. and Uzu-Okoh, J. E. (2024) 'AI-Based Risk Modeling of Infectious Disease Spread and Its Implications for Public Health Security in Vulnerable Populations', International Journal of Medical and All Body Health Research, 5(4), pp. 241-250. doi: 10.54660/IJMBHR.2024.5.4.241-250.
Olalere SO, Uzu-Okoh JE. AI-Based Risk Modeling of Infectious Disease Spread and Its Implications for Public Health Security in Vulnerable Populations. International Journal of Medical and All Body Health Research. 2024;5(4):241-250. doi:10.54660/IJMBHR.2024.5.4.241-250
Similar Articles
- An Interpretable XGBoost Model for Diabetes Prediction: Nested Cross-Validation, Calibration, and SHAP Analysis Vol 7, Issue 3 (2026)
- Personalized Exercise Prescription in Neuro Physiotherapy: Current Evidence and Future Perspectives Vol 7, Issue 3 (2026)
- Explainable Artificial Intelligence and Predictive Analytics: Applications Across Healthcare, Finance, Cybersecurity, and Sustainable Systems Vol 7, Issue 3 (2026)
- Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Pharmaceutical Analytical Chemistry: Transforming Drug Quality Control and Process Optimization. A Review Vol 7, Issue 2 (2026)
- Systematic and Integrative review on Artificial intelligence in the Diagnosis of Dementia, Brain Neuroplasticity, and Healthy Aging Vol 7, Issue 1 (2026)
Find this Article on
Google Scholar Semantic Scholar OpenAlex Scilit Crossref ResearchGate BASEA newly published article may take a few days to appear on these services.